Shun Xin Agricultural (000860) terminal survey series 4: The price of large single-product aging is stable and there is a rising sales speed that is significantly faster than competing products

Shun Xin Agricultural (000860) terminal survey series 4: The price of large single-product aging is stable and there is a rising sales speed that is significantly faster than competing products
Investment Highlights: Incident: We visited 14 large supermarkets in 7 cities in Beijing and Shanghai to investigate the retail situation of light bottle wine terminals.This issue summarizes the survey data and samples obtained from the survey on October 19, 2019 for investors’ reference.  Investment rating and estimation: Maintain profit forecast, predicting net profit attributable to mothers to be 10 in 2019-2021.9.5 billion, 14.47 billion, 18.7.7 billion, an increase of 47%, 32%, and 30% each year. The current targets correspond to PE of 32x, 24x, and 18x in 2019-2021, and maintain BUY ratings.We are optimistic about the company’s core logic: 1. Focus on the main business of wine and meat and solve the problem of diversification.Currently focusing on wine and meat, the real estate business is expected to reduce the drag on the main business through the initial sales of existing projects.2. Liquor business still has a lot of room for improvement in market share and net profit.Niulanshan has a strong brand power, product power, channel power, and pragmatic management team. It began to spur growth in the second half of 2017. In the future, the growth space will focus on national expansion. It will increase market share, price, and net profitFrom three perspectives, there is still plenty of room for growth in liquor business.  Price situation: The price of large single-product aging has risen steadily, and the price in Shanghai generally exceeds Beijing.  In terms of price, the price of 42-degree aging Shanghai is higher than that of Beijing. The price of Beijing is relatively stable. The price range of Shanghai narrows and the price center moves upward.The 52-degree aging Shanghai price is higher than Beijing, the Beijing price range narrows, the price center moves upward, the Shanghai price center moves downward, and the regional spread of 52-degree aging is less than 42-degree aging.The 43-degree refined aging price remained basically stable.The price of 52-degree treasures in Shanghai is higher than that in Beijing, and the price range remains stable.The 39-degree treasure aging price range is stable, and there is less distribution in Shanghai.  The price of 52-year-old treasures in Shanghai is higher than that in Beijing, and the price range remains stable.  Age of goods: The delivery speed of aging wines in Shanghai has accelerated, and the delivery speed in Beijing has improved. The sales speed of aging wines in Niulanshan is significantly faster than that of competing products.  The 42-year-old aging in Shanghai is obviously younger than Beijing. Shanghai is basically August and later products. The 42-year-old production date in Beijing is widely distributed. From February to August 19, the delivery speed is slower than Shanghai.The delivery rate of 42-degree aging in Beijing area has slowed down, and the delivery speed in Shanghai area has accelerated.The overall average age of 52-degree aging is significantly shorter. The age of products in Shanghai is significantly shorter than that of Beijing. The delivery speed is faster than that of Beijing and faster than the previous issue. The delivery speed of Beijing has improved.The overall age of 43-degree refined aging wine has become longer, and the delivery speed in Shanghai is faster than that in Beijing.The average 厦门夜网 age of 52-degree treasures has improved, and the speed of delivery has improved.The average age of 39-degree treasures is longer than the previous period.The age of 52-degree treasures in Shanghai is shorter than that of Beijing, and the overall average age of goods has not changed much.In proportion to competing products, the selling speed of 42-year-old and 52-year-old Niulanshan is obviously renewed, and the age of goods is significantly shorter than that of competitive products.Age-Competitive