Depth-Company-Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225): 18 years of ton coal net profit of 104 yuan can be expected to grow in the next three years

Depth * Company * Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225): 18 years of ton coal net profit of 104 yuan

Net profit attributable to the parent company for 11 years was 11 billion, an increase of 5.

2%, in line with expectations.

In the next three years, new mines will be released, and the production capacity under construction will be released, and the production capacity will increase. The company’s coal mine output is expected to increase by 22% (or 2400 tons) to 1 in 2021.

3.2 billion tons, with an average annual output growth of 7%, and continue to maintain better growth.

In October 19, the Menghuahua Railway will be opened to traffic. It is expected that the company will replace the capacity replaced in 2000, which 南京桑拿论坛 will help improve profitability.

The company has good growth and excellent profitability, which is underestimated as the high-quality target of the sector.

The current P / E ratio is only 8 times, which is 25% lower than the industry average. Maintain BUY rating.

Key points to support the rating 2018’s stable performance, abundant cash, and margins fell slightly, in line with expectations.

The annual report shows that operating income in 2018 was 57.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.

4%; operating profit 19.1 billion yuan, an increase of 4 in ten years.

7%; net profit attributable to parent company is 110 ppm, an increase of 5 per year.

2%.

Initial benefits1.

1 yuan, an annual increase of 5.

82%.

The 18-year dividend payout ratio is 30%.

The profit margin dropped slightly, with a gross profit margin of 49% (55% in 2017), an operating profit margin of 33% (36% in 2017), and a net profit margin of 19% (21% in 2017).

The period expense ratio decreased from 16% in 2017 to 13 in 2018.

2% historical low.

The expense ratio during the period has fallen sharply for three consecutive years, with 33% and 25% in 2015/2016, respectively.

Return on net assets fell by 4 averages to 23%.

Net asset interest rate dropped from 14% to a historical low of 2%, resulting in operating cash flow of up to 1.
.

98 yuan, an annual increase of 17%.

In the next three years, the output can increase by 22%, and the output of equity will increase by more than 30%, and it will continue to maintain better growth.

Coal production in 2018 increased by 7% to 1.

0.8 billion tons (6020 attachments for equity production), with sales up 16% to 1.

4.3 billion tons, maintaining steady and rapid growth.

Along with the Xiaobaodang mine, the Yuan Datan mine is in full production, and the second phase of the Xiaobaodang mine under construction in 1300, and the nuclear output of Sunjiacha, Hongliulin, and Dafosi increased by 1,200 tons.

3.2 billion tons, an increase of 22% (or 2400 interest rates) over 18 years, and an interest rate of 7903 interest rates, an increase of 31%.

The average annual output growth is about 7%, and continued to maintain rapid output growth.

Net profit per ton of coal is still high.

The net profit per ton of coal for 18 years was 104 yuan, which was slightly lower than 3 yuan in 2017. It still maintained a high profitability and was at the forefront of listed companies.

Because the company’s long-term price is linked to the Bohai Rim Index, the Bohai Rim index has not changed much in 17 years, and the 570 yuan has fluctuated by 10 yuan, resulting in a small increase in the company’s coal price.

In 18 years, coal prices rose slightly.

9% to 371 yuan.

After 19 years, railway capacity has improved.

The railway transportation sales in 18 years accounted for 41% of the total sales volume, an increase from the 17 years.
The Menghua Railway is expected to open in October 19, with an initial capacity of 100 million tons. It is estimated that Shaanxi Coal Industry may be allocated to 2000, which is 34% higher than the company ‘s railway coal sales capacity in 18 years, which obviously contributes to the improvement and profitability of railway improvement.Continue to improve.
On January 12, this year, 21 people died in a major coal mine accident in Shenmu Baiji Mining, Shaanxi Province, which caused a large-scale suspension of production. The company’s output in the first quarter of 19 is expected to decrease by 200 tons. Therefore, we expect the new mine to reach output slightly.Adjusted backwards, thus lowering the 19-year profit forecast9.

7%.

The company’s fundamental advantages are obvious: the company has high-calorie and low-sulfur excellent coal quality, strong profitability (a number of indicators hit the forefront of the industry), excellent cost control, good growth, huge potential release potential and potential growth.
It is estimated that the company has good growth, excellent profitability, underestimated, and is the high-quality target of the sector.

The profit forecast for 2019-2020 has been lowered due to a slight adjustment of the expectations of new mines to reach production.

At present, the company’s P / E ratio is only 8 times, which is 25% lower than the industry average. We maintain our Buy rating.

The main risks facing the rating are that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, coal prices are falling, and cost accruals exceed expectations, and good performance cannot be sustained.